NC-Sen: Coming off of last week's news that Kay Hagan raised $1.6 million in Q2, Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole is out with her own Q2 numbers.
They can't be inspiring for Republicans.
First off, the incumbent and former NRSC chair (one would think that would give her a leg up, no?), barely outraised Hagan for the quarter, bringing in $1.7 million.
That's a lackluster result for Dole, regardless. But worse for North Carolina's senior Senator is the fact that due to her statewide advertising blitz in June, she actually has less money on hand than she did at the end of Q1. Her $3.2 million bankroll has dwindled to $2.7 million as of last report. Hagan, meanwhile, has $1.2 million in the bank, despite having spent a good bit of change to win her contested primary in May.
Given the pace of Hagan's fundraising, and the DSCC's heavy cash advantage over their Republican counterparts, there's a genuine opening for Hagan to close the polling gap between herself and Dole over the next few months. Dole's profligate spending in Q2 has in fact given Hagan a golden opportunity to catch her.
CO-Sen: Bob Schaffer's Big Oil scandal is looking pretty bad, I must say.
For those unfamiliar with the scandal, you can find more here. In short, Schaffer helped broker an deal between Aspect Energy and the Kurdistan Regional Government, in violation of State Department wishes. It was not received well by the Iraqi government.
Notes on the scandal: two foreign policy experts, Rand Beers and Larry Korb, have come out against the deal.
Two foreign policy advisers ripped GOP Senate candidate Bob Schaffer Friday, saying an oil deal his company negotiated in a region of Iraq jeopardized the safety of American troops.
The pair — dismissed by the GOP as liberal hit men — also said the contract violated U.S. policy against cutting deals with the Kurdistan Regional Government, and Schaffer should have known that because of his experience in Congress.
Liberal hit men, eh? Who are these folks, anyway?
"I think there is a serious question about who Bob Schaffer is," said Rand Beers, former senior member of National Security Council staff who worked for every president since Ronald Reagan.
Beers and Larry Korb, former assistant secretary of defense under Reagan, criticized Schaffer and Aspect Energy during a conference call arranged by Schaffer's Democratic opponent, Mark Udall.
Yes, these Reagan cabinet officials really sound like partisan hit men to me. But Schaffer's campaign manager, Dick Wadhams, is graceless as ever:
"Beers worked on John Kerry's campaign. What does that tell you? They masquerade as nonpartisan, objective foreign policy experts but they are hit men paid by the left," he said. "These two creeps have no credibility."
OR-Sen: Jeff Merkley enjoyed his best quarter yet, by far, in Q2, as far as fundraising goes. The Merkley campaign brought in a total haul of $1.42 million over the past three months.
This is roughly triple what the campaign raised in Q1. In fact, their online donations for Q2 ($420,000) nearly match their total Q1 take.
Quite a decent haul for the Merkley campaign; let's hope they can keep this pace going.
Update: Smith has reported raising $1.35 million, meaning Merkley outraised him this quarter. Excellent news.
NE-Sen: There is no greater contrast between Republican Mike Johanns and Democrat Scott Kleeb (an Orange to Blue candidate) than on than on issues of climate change.
Democratic U.S. Senate contender Scott Kleeb believes the battle against global warming amounts to a "moral test" for mankind, while Republican Mike Johanns believes Kleeb goes "way too far" on the issue without regard to the economy and science.
Kleeb says the evidence suggests that greenhouse gases are causing the climate to change, while Johanns says it remains "contested science."
The two men's responses to climate change highlight their sharp differences on energy policy and global warming. The gulf between them on these cornerstone issues, such as oil drilling in Alaska, could be one of the hottest topics on the U.S. Senate campaign trail.
Johanns says he would place a high priority on supporting new oil exploration and drilling, including off-shore drilling and drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
Kleeb says he would place a high priority on developing "green" energy solutions such as solar, wind and ethanol.
On the one side, you have "contested science". On the other, you have a "moral test".
Johanns prioritizes more drilling, furthering our reliance on oil. Kleeb prioritizes the development of alternative energy sources.
Enough said.
House Races
PA-03: While this race has been on the back burner for some time, it may not stay there for long. A Democratic poll shows kathy Dahlkemper leading Republican incumbent Phil English by one point:
Dahlkemper (D) 41
English (R) 39
While this race has definitely been on the radar so far, it's quite surprising to see numbers this strong for Dahlkemper, who has been a decent but not spectacular fundraiser, and has never previously held elected office. English's job approval numbers are awful - 35% approving, 52% disapproving - and if they are accurate, he's in bigger trouble than previously imagined.
MN-03: GOPer Erik Paulsen pulled in an impressive $600,000 in Q2.
For a few days, this was a major source of concern for Democrats eager to pick up this swing district. MN-03 is a wealthy area, but even so, $600K is an impressive take for a House race.
Well, it seems that anything Paulsen can raise, Democrat Ashwin Madia can raise better.
Madia brought in $693,000 in the second quarter, a stunning haul that certainly inspires confidence. The NRCC and various third-party groups (including the shadowy Freedom's Watch) will be involved here, and now we know Madia will have the financial resources to fight them off.
TX-07: Democrat Michael Skelly pulled in $412,000 in Q2, in an R+15.6 district.
He also contributed $200,000 of his own money to his campaign. This follows a mammoth first quarter in which he raised $700,000.
Skelly now has nearly twice the cash-on-hand of incumbent John Culberson, with over a million dollars in the bank, for a race that isn't even top-tier (given the extreme redness of the district).
This is genuinely impressive fundraising work for a suburban Houston Democrat.
NE-02: Sour grapes appear to have poisoned the heart of former Democratic candidate Richard Carter.
Carter had been in the race in this Omaha-based district to take out Republican incumbent Lee Terry, but after getting drilled in the primary by 2006 candidate Jim Esch, Carter has now endorsed Terry.
From New Nebraska Network:
Lee Terry is the prototypical lock-step partisan who's given George W. Bush everything he could possibly want to carry on this war without end. That's everything Richard Carter once stood against. And, now, that's precisely the sort of policies and approach to which he's pledged his support. There's no doubt that's a terrible loss - for Second District voters, for Carter's supporters, but - most importantly and most tragically - also for Carter himself.
NNN goes on to table numerous quotes from Carter himself regarding just how dreadful a Congressman Terry has been:
Question: How do you differ w/Terry on military issues?
Richard Carter's response:
"I understand them."
Question: How do you feel we can improve upon the Iraq policy supported by Lee Terry?
Richard Carter's response:
"By removing him from office.
This is my favorite, though:
Question: Do you have any comment about the article that ran in the Omaha World Herald on Friday? Terry gives wrestling guru verbal body slam?....Is this the way you would represent NE-02?
Richard Carter's response:
"I just wish Lee would have been as upset when Miers and Bolten refused to appear (to answer a Congresional subpoena). When this issue was brought up, Lee threw a temper-tantrum with the rest of the House republicans and walked out.
So, no, I would not represent NE-02 like a child."
Apparently, this is not the case.
On the web:
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