Let me introduce everyone to a name that most people probably have never heard of but should know:  Nels Ackerson.  Nels is currently running for Congress in Indiana's 4th Congressional District against Republican incumbent Steve Buyer.  Now I know that we have to pick and choose our battles, so I'm not bitter that Nels is not on the Orange->Blue list or on the DCCC's Red->Blue list.  In fact, given previous cycles in IN-04 this is pretty understandable.  But follow me over the fold and I'll attempt to introduce you to Nels Ackerson, explain why he is an absolutely fantastic candidate, but more importantly, why I think that he can even win this race.  We all love darkhorses don't we?  I must confess that I am somewhat astonished that this race has received almost no attention from anyone, and that's why I'm writing this diary.  Consider it DKos on the cutting edge.  If someone can point me to some resources where this race has received some attention that I am merely overlooking I whole-heartedly welcome it.

The 2008 gubernatorial races were never meant to be the cycle's most suspenseful contests, but my March ratings found that the top four races had gotten unexpectedly more competitive, with three making their way to the toss-up rating. Yet, things have quieted down over the past few months. For one, heated Democratic primaries in Indiana and North Carolina were resolved and it will take some time before the general election in these states reaches full speed. Meanwhile, Missouri's Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon is expanding his lead over his two potential opponents in what is looking like it could be a runaway race.

Originally posted on Campaign Diaries.

The Republican party and the Republican brand are in trouble.  Big trouble.  We all already know this with the anti-Republican sentiment nearly as high as the pro-Democratic sentiment nationwide.  

Our Presidential candidate is up nearly six points in polling averages.  Nearly all of our national groups are outfunding their Republican counterparts (where are you, DNC?) and the Republicans are retiring at a record rate rather than attempt to serve in the minority after a hard-fought battle -- if they even win back their seats.

And if you want more evidence, look below the fold for the changes by the Cook Political Report released today.

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - A Palestinian construction worker rammed a bulldozer into buses and cars on one of west Jerusalem's busiest streets on Wednesday, killing three Israelis and wounding more than 40 before he was shot dead.

http://uk.reuters.com/...

The GOP war on earmarks reaches a new low today as they attack the DNC for "defending earmarks".

Earmarks, for those of you who don't know or are confused, are vehicles by which Congress is able to fund many of the essential needs of the country. Common examples of earmarks include funding for police and firefighters, funding to repair roads, bridges and levees and funding for public parks. 99% of earmarks are for vital domestic needs such as these. When the GOP talks about earmarks they like to talk about the 1% of earmarks that fund silly projects like the infamous "bridge to nowhere" (ironically supported by GOP Senator Ted Stevens).

Former Young Republican National Federation Chairman Glenn Murphy, Jr. was sentenced after his admission to Class B Felony Criminal Deviate Conduct. He performed oral sex on someone asleep at a party for Young Republicans in Clark County.

This sort of  story, currently running on CNN's website - an experienced and seemingly enlightened teacher being punished by a bunch of prudish, power hungry, yokels - never fails to make me both angry and queasy. It calls to mind other such censorious and irrational cases as the Scopes trial, the burning of Beatles albums by Southern evangelicals in the 60s, and the attempts to keep certain reading materials out of the hands of young people; in fact, that is what this is. I get outraged by seeing idiot mobs getting away with such abuses of power.

Part of the reason for dumbing down in our culture has to do with power being placed in the hands of such entities as the Perry Township School Board, as expressed by Jon Baily, its pasty faced, censorship-legitimizing attorney, and of other such unenlghtened boards across the country. My sympatheties here are absolutely with Connie Heermann and her students. She is clearly a woman of character and integrity, and this school probably doesn't deserve her. I hope that her union will continue to fight for her.

All along, Evan Bayh has been seen as a possible VP as a way to appease Hillary supporters. No one, outside of her own family and maybe Ed Rendell, was a bigger surrogate for her campaign. And as the party coalesced around Obama, it was easy to see Bayh's stock slipping. After all, he didn't exactly help Hillary romp in Indiana.

Seems like a small price to pay for the chance to spend the day with Sen. Obama on the campaign trail if you are a local reporter.

The Herald Times newspaper in Bloomington sent a reporter along with Obama's campaign as it visited Indiana during the primary. The campaign provided bus service, meals, phone access, etc. -- as campaigns usually do -- and then billed the paper -- as campaigns usually do.

The paper was not entirely happy with the amount billed for meals -- $115.62.

I sure hope McCain isn't paying his staff much money cause man do they stink at their job.  Granted they have a tough job of making McCain look young, hip, smart, energetic, enthusiastic, smart, oops said that one already...

This camp can’t go a single day without falling on their face, flip-flopping on an issue, or just saying something so stupid it hurts to read.

cross posted on my site OurHispanicVoices.com

A recent poll by the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics and SurveyUSA shows that Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jill Long Thompson is catching up to the Indiana incumbent, Mitch Daniels. For the past several months, Daniels has been leading Long Thompson. The new poll, which was conducted on June 10th-12th shows that Daniels's lead is decreasing.

Of the 452 people polled by SurveyUSA's callers, each candidate received about 49%. But, the poll also shows Daniels has an razor-thin edge among some groups of voters (depending on how the question was phrased). This race is becoming tighter, and for good reason. Daniels is sharply criticized for his judgment and Indiana's economy. For the full results, look to this webpage.

I've got to say that I really didn't expect this.

SurveyUSA. 6/21-23. Likely voters. MoE 4% (2/26-28 results)

Let's definitely take a look at the internals:

Democratic and independent women are trending Obama. He made a solid 35-point gain among independents and decent 8-point gain among Democrats. Both candidates have nearly equal support among their base, leaving the decision up to independents. If Obama can hold on to them, we'll see Indiana turn Blue. Still hard to believe, but the numbers have consistently suggested a closer race than you'd expect from a state Bush won 60-39 in 2004.

The small subsample size of the racial breakdown (blacks are 7 percent of the sample) means we get ridiculous results like McCain getting 14 percent of the black vote. He won't, obviously.

Most of us know that SurveyUSA has been a fairly reliable pollster in the past, and although they royally screwed up the Indiana Democratic primary, they underestimated Obama's support, not overestimated it. Now, we have this poll rolling in...

So sez SUSA.  I'm not big into polling, but unlike the stupid daily tracking polls, state polls at least give a measure of electoral strength.  Plus I live in Indiana.

19 Weeks Out, Obama and McCain Neck And Neck In Hoosier State: In an election today in Indiana, Barack Obama takes 48% of the vote, John McCain 47% of the vote -- a statistical tie -- according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville and WCPO-TV Cincinnati. Obama's 1-point lead is within the survey's 4 percentage point margin of sampling error, and these results should be reported as a tie. Among men, McCain leads by 5; among women, Obama leads by 7 -- a 12-point gender gap. Among voters age 18 to 49, Obama leads by 5; among voters 50+, McCain leads by 3. Obama leads by 22 points among voters under age 35. 16% of Republicans cross over to vote for Democrat Obama; 19% of Democrats cross over to vote for Republican McCain; Independents favor Obama by 7 points. Among those voters who say they have already made up their minds, the two candidates are tied; among the 25% who say they could still change their mind, Obama leads by 2.

I am Barry Welsh amd I am the Democratic Candidate for United States Congress in Indiana’s 6th District.   I am also a long time member of the Netroots Nation.

A quick update from the campaign:

We held the Indiana State Democratic Party Convention this past weeekend.

There are reports at most of the great Indiana blogs, including, but not limited too; Blue Indiana which I highlight and link because that page links other fine Indiana blogs and reports.

A prominent, up-and-coming Republican gets sentenced in accordance with state law for a sex crime he pled guilty to, and what do I feel?

Concern. For him, not The Children.

Glenn Murphy was the president, for several weeks, of the Young Republicans National Federation and the chair the Clark County, Indiana, Republican Party. After he and another Young Republican spent the night at a friend's house to sleep off a YRNF function, the other Young Republican awoke to find Murphy sucking his cock.

Murphy's defense was consent. Then he apologized for the whole thing. Then his lawyer tried to "come to an understanding" with the victim.

After several other men came forward with similar accusations against him, he pled guilty and got a life sentence.

With 35 Senate seats being contested this year (33 plus 2 special elections), Democrats have only 4 female candidates: Jeanne Shaheen (NH), Kay Hagan (NC), Vivian Figures (AL) and incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu (LA). That's a shamefully low number. The Republicans only have 2 incumbents, Elizabeth Dole (NC) and Susan Collins (ME), and one sole challenger, Christine O'Donnell (DE).

Overall, this is not a great year for women in the U.S. Senate. The overall outcome will be somewhere between minus 2 and plus 4 female Senators. The most likely outcome is somewhere between minus 1 and plus 1.

So, let's look ahead to 2010. Specifically, to which Democratic female politicians might or should run for the U.S. Senate in 2010.

     Jon Elrod, the Republican opponent for the seat Andre' Carson (Democrat) defends in IN houe District 7, has dropped out of the November election campaign. This has been historically a strongly Democratic district in Indianapolis, served for many years by Andre's grandmother Julia Carson.  After her death in December Andre' won her seat in a special election this spring, but has to run again in November for a full term. For a picture of Indiana politics that indicates waning conservative power you may enjoy reading a revealing article in today's Indianapolis Star by local columnist Matt Tully showing the direction of this race with a blip of the govenor's race, too: