A recent poll by the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics and SurveyUSA shows that Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jill Long Thompson is catching up to the Indiana incumbent, Mitch Daniels. For the past several months, Daniels has been leading Long Thompson. The new poll, which was conducted on June 10th-12th shows that Daniels's lead is decreasing.

Of the 452 people polled by SurveyUSA's callers, each candidate received about 49%. But, the poll also shows Daniels has an razor-thin edge among some groups of voters (depending on how the question was phrased). This race is becoming tighter, and for good reason. Daniels is sharply criticized for his judgment and Indiana's economy. For the full results, look to this webpage.

Over 1.25 million Indianans voted yesterday for Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama in the Democratic presidential primary.

Over 1.1 million Indianans voted for Jill Long Thompson or Jim Schellinger in the Democratic primary for Governor of Indiana.

In 2004, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry received 969,000 votes in the state of Indiana...in the general election. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Joe Kernan received roughly 1.1 million votes, just shy of Schellinger and Long Thompson's combined votes in the 2008 primary.

The Democratic vote in the Indiana primary not only clearly outstrips Kerry's total from the general-which is remarkable in and of itself-but it is actually closer to Bush's vote total in Indiana than it is to Kerry's. Bush received 1.48 million votes in Indiana in 2004, 60% of the vote.

Anyone who doesn't think Democratic voters are fired up for this election is not paying attention. And this election will represent not only an excellent opportunity to win Indiana's governorship, but our best opportunity since 1992 at taking Indiana's 11 electoral votes.

Race tracker wiki: IN-Gov

Congratulations to North Carolina State Senator Kay Hagan, who handily won the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate today.

State Sen. Kay Hagan (D) locked up her party’s nomination for a chance at Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) this fall. With about half of the precincts reporting, Hagan had 61 percent to 19 percent for her closest competitor, investment adviser Jim Neal (D).

Dole is favored to win a second term, but some Democrats believe Hagan is a sleeper candidate who can make the race very close.

Hagan now heads into the general election trailing Dole by seven points in polling, holding the incumbent under 50% re-elect, and having shown strong fundraising ability. North Carolina currently stands as one of the most promising second-tier Senate races in the country.

Meanwhile, in Indiana, the Democratic primary for Governor couldn't be closer. Democrats Jim Schellinger and Jill Long Thompson are deadlocked at 50%, with Schellinger leading by just 600 votes out of over 1.1 million cast, and with 263 precincts (out of 5280) yet to report.

Hopefully, we'll know by tomorrow. Whoever wins should have a terrific race against Indiana's current governor, famed Bush crony Mitch Daniels.

Update: With only 16 precincts left, Jill Long Thompson is up by 5,000 votes. She will almost certainly be the nominee. Congratulations to the former Congresswoman, and may she beat hell out of Mitch Daniels in the fall.

Race tracker wiki: NC-Sen IN-Gov

A week from Tuesday, voters in Indiana (and North Carolina) won't just be casting votes in the presidential primary - they'll be choosing downballot nominees as well. In Indiana, the hottest race on the Dem side is the gubernatorial primary. It features former Rep. Jill Long Thompson vs. architect Jim Schellinger.

Long Thompson held Indiana's 4th CD for a couple of terms in the early '90s until she was swept out in the Republican wave of '94. Schellinger, meanwhile, is a fairly wealthy first-time office seeker (he runs an architectural firm in Indianapolis) who has given a lot of money to fellow Dems over the years. Schellinger out-raised Long Thompson about $1.9 million to $1.1 million through March 31st, but the two are locked in a tight race, according to two very similar recent polls:

Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics at Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne (likely voters, 4/14-16):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 47
Jim Schellinger(D): 41
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±4.2%)

Research 2000 (likely voters, 4/21-24):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 48
Jim Schellinger (D): 42
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±5%)

Both candidates are vying to take on Bush apparatchik Mitch Daniels, whose job approval rating in the Research 2000 poll had him underwater at 42-49. Due to "My Man Mitch's" unpopularity, prognosticators consider IN-Gov to be one of the hottest gubernatorial races this cycle. Cook (PDF) and Rothenberg both have this race as a toss-up, while CQ puts it in the next-most competitive category, lean Republican. The polls show why:

Mike Downs Center:

Jim Schellinger (D): 46%
Mitch Daniels (R-inc.): 47%

Jill Long Thompson (D): 47%
Mitch Daniels (R-inc.): 48%
(MoE: ±2.8%)

Research 2000:

Jim Schellinger (D): 44
Mitch Daniels (R-inc.): 45
Undecided: 10

Jill Long Thompson (D): 45
Mitch Daniels (R-inc.): 45
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±4%)

As you can see, whichever candidate of ours emerges from the primary, we're going to give Mitch Daniels a real race this fall.

(Hat-tip: TXObserver & James.)

Race tracker wiki: IN-Gov

As Bush's first budget chief, Mitch Daniel was the architect of our nation's huge deficits and ballooning debt. Somehow, he was able to parlay that into a successful Indiana gubernatorial bid in the strong GOP year 2004.

However, in 2006 Indiana showed signs of purpling by tossing three Republicans from its House delegation. Then a day or two ago, the Indianapolis Star released a poll showing that a generic Democratic presidential ticket was edging out a Republican one 37-32 in this deep Red state. If you threw Bayh in as vice-president (which I hope we wouldn't), the numbers became 47-33 in favor of the Democratic ticket.

Now, we see that Daniels himself isn't looking so hot.

Selzer & Co for the Indianapolis Star/WTHR. 11/13-16. All adults. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

The man who made  a mess out of our nation's finances is making such a mess out of Indiana's that its deeply Republican votes are angling for big change. Fitting.

Race tracker wiki: IN-Gov

A WTHR/Indianapolis Star poll this morning has some surprising results showing Republican Governor Mitch Daniels in serious trouble.  The conventional wisdom was that Daniels was possibly vulnerable, but that this was a lower tier pickup opportunity due to a lack of name candidates on the Dem side.  However, both former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson and businessman Jim Schellinger beat out Governor Daniels in head to head matchups despite virtually no name ID.  Daniels also has a 50% disapproval to 40% approval.

http://www.indystar.com/...

Half of Hoosiers likely to vote in next year's election disapprove of Gov. Mitch Daniels' performance, and the two Democrats vying for Daniels' job have at least as much voter support as he does, according to a new Indianapolis Star-WTHR (Channel 13) poll.

Of the 449 people surveyed who said they were likely to vote in the 2008 election, 44 percent said they would back Thompson if their choice was between Thompson and Daniels, while the governor received support from 43 percent of those surveyed.
In a match-up between Schellinger and Daniels, Schellinger was ahead 44 percent to 40 percent.

(Cross-posted at my blog, An Enduring Democratic Majority).

Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels is in real trouble. Even Christine Gregoire of Washington, who was elected in 2004 by a mere 129 votes, has a higher approval rating than Governor Daniels.

According to Wikipedia, Daniels' approval rating has not been over 50 percent since 2005. As recent as April of 2006, Daniels was sitting at a pathetic 35 percent. Yet, Daniels is taking this all in stride as he makes plans to announce his reelection plans tomorrow at Butler University.