It's been a while since my last House diary, and I just know you've been sitting there wondering "when will Nathaniel publish his next House roundup diary? I can't live without my fix, and he's just so...incisive...and brilliant...and downright Lincolnesque." (h/t to Stephen Colbert for that.)

Well, pine no more! As always, seats are ranked by flippability, but since House races are so numerous (at 435), I eventually switch to alphabetical order after the first 18 races. I figured 18 was a convenient number...and I also got lazy after writing about Alaska At Large.

Read below the fold, if you dare...

Okay, so I want to give props to the NRCC for admitting they have a problem:

"Clearly, we have got problems that are deep and serious in terms of how we are going to do in the fall elections," [Tom] Cole said.

That's progress. But then we hit the snag, as Cole further explains what those "problems" are:

"Having said that... we haven't lost as a party because of the ideological agenda on the other side. The obvious challenge we face is we had somebody running as a Republican, pro-life, pro-gun, who wants to cut taxes, wants to control spending. That's not particularly in step with where the Democratic majority is. So, that is going to create some opportunities for us. I think those issues clarify and reinforce [our agenda]."

First of all, does Cole really think that wanting to "control spending" is a Republican trait? If so, how come Bill Clinton balanced the budget while Mr. 27% and his Republican Congress has given us record deficits?

Nope, balancing the budget is definitely not a Republican trait. It's a Democratic one.

Second of all, guns are no longer a Republican issue. The NRA won. Democrats have given up on guns and have moved on. I know Republicans don't want to acknowledge that victory because it strips them of a once-useful wedge, but really, when you have Clinton and Obama fighting over who is more pro-gun, you know we've moved on.

So what's left? "Cut taxes"? Sure, everyone wants to cut taxes. The question is who gets those cuts and who shoulders the heavier tax burden. Republicans think oil companies need tax breaks, Democrats think lower and middle class families deserve them.

So that leaves abortion. And yes, on that issue, the two victorious Democrats in Louisiana (Don Cayazoux) and Mississippi (Travis Childers) actually buck their party. I'll add another one that Cole ignored -- immigration. On the border issue, these guys are downright regressive.

But that doesn't make them Republicans. Because if it does, then these positions shared by Cayazoux and Childers are now Republican positions:

• End the war in Iraq (Cazayoux, Childers)
• Stop new free trade deals (Cazayoux, Childers)
• Support SCHIP (Cazayoux, Childers)
• Eliminate subsidies to big oil (Childers)
• Protect social security (Cazayoux, Childers)
• Improve educational opportunities (Cazayoux, Childers)

This was the same lame spin that Republicans used to try and rationalize Jim Webb's victory in Virginia in 2006, before quickly dropping that approach as Webb's economic populism took center stage. Cazayoux and Childers appear to be economix populists in the Jim Webb mold.

What infuriates Republicans to no end is that these two Democrats effectively nullified GOP efforts to run on their pet social issues. Decades of winning elections on the abortion issue hasn't made abortion illegal in the country, nor has decades of anti-gay hysteria stopped the growing spread of tolerance, fairness, and equality. Heck, I doubt Republicans want to win those issues, given how quickly they're losing guns as a wedge issue now that they've won that battle.

With those social issues off the table, what's left? The kind of stuff that truly can make a material impact on people's lives -- health care, education, jobs, social security, and Iraq.

And no matter how much Republicans try to counter with the usual boogeymen (which now includes Obama, Wright, Pelosi and Kerry), it's not working. Democrats have clear advantages on bread and butter issues as well as the war in Iraq, even in the reddest of districts.

That's why Cazayoux ad Childers won. Not because they ran as Republicans, but because they ran on Democratic issues after taking the usual Republican wedge issues off the table.

Race tracker wiki: MS-01

Every State. Every race. Right here.

This is number nine in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole ball of cotton.  Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.

With our new Congressman Travis Childers’ very public capture of "A Congressional seat in rural Mississippi" (as opposed to, I guess, urban Mississippi), sending Republicans into a panic nationwide, Mississippi is in the seat of honor, and a reminder to the progressive blogosphere, that, yes, every state counts!  Here’s to the State of  Mississippi!

A lot has been said about the 50 State Strategy as of late. I know that we have to allocate resources. However, I do feel that the AL-Sen race has been underestimated. It is a race that has serious potential for several reasons.  I think that we need to think about what this 50 state strategy really means. Is it house races, local races, statewide races or Senate races?

Will you help me draw attention to this race?

Donate $15.01, $30, $50.38 or whatever you can afford today to help me draw attention to this race. We need to easily win this primary and propel ourself for attention into the fall.

http://www.actblue.com/...

n Mississippi, Democrat Travis Childers defeated Republican Greg Davis in a special election for the 1st Congressional District on Tuesday by a substantial margin.  Earlier this month, Democrat Don Cazayoux defeated Republican Louis E. "Woody" Jenkins in Louisiana's 1st Congressional District.  Last month, Democrat Bill Foster prevailed in a special election in Illinois' 14th Congressional District over Republican Jim Oberweis.

These three defeats by the Republicans in special elections are surely troubling to Republicans in New Mexico and, indeed, nationwide.  Why?

First, a primer on The Cook Partisan Voter Index, which was developed by political analyst Charlie Cook in 1997 of the non-partisan Cook Political Report newsletter.

Also at New Mexico FBIHOP

Credit for this goes to Eric Kleefield over at TPM.

By now we all know about the thumping that Travis Childers gave to Greg Davis in MS-01, a very conserative district that has a PVI rating of R+10.  The NRCC funneled *$1.2 million*, while the shadowy Freedom's Watch threw in an estimated $400k and Greg Davis  himself used almost $1 million.  

The Republicans' entire strategy was to tie Childers with the "librul" Democratic establishment and they even used race-baiting guilt-by-association-by-association Rev. Wright smears.

How well did it work?  Childers improved 3 pt. victory (in the first special election) to an 8 pt. thrashing in last night's runoff.  Great news, huh?  Think it can't get any better?

Think again.

Fellow members of the DailyKos community, I wish I were writing to you under happier circumstances.  Unfortunately, however, there is a dark and heavy cloud hanging over us and I feel that it must be addressed.

I am certain by now that you have heard the disturbing and saddening news that last night, a Democrat won a Congressional seat in Mississippi in a special election.  Like me, you were probably horrified to learn that the Republicans lost this seat despite the fact that they had shoveled thousands of crisp jillion-dollar bills into the campaign coffers.

Not only that, but the Republicans also bought every commercial block available and showed video of Jeremiah Wright and Barack Obama stomping on kittens and feasting on the blood of the innocent.  Still the Democrats won.  

As I'm sure you know, this is horrible news for the Democrats.

Dick Cheney on Monday evening:

It's great to be in DeSoto County, Mississippi, and in the fine city of Southaven.  (Applause.)  And may I say at the outset that there's no doubt in my mind that Greg Davis will be a winner tomorrow.  (Applause.)  -  Dick Cheney

Yes, and the insurgency is in its last throes.

Cheney was just one part of the multi-pronged campaign desperate attempt by the GOP to hold onto a once safe, Republican seat.  More than a million dollars, robo-calls from George Bush and John McCain, scary black man ads, and of course, the San Francisco librul threat:  

What we need in Washington is a strong conservative congressman from Mississippi -- not another Democrat going to bat for Nancy Pelosi.  (Applause.)

But just as it had in Illinois and Louisiana, the strategy failed.  In fact:  

When the Republicans made the bizarre decision this week to send Vice President Dick Cheney into Mississippi to campaign for Republican Greg Davis, Childers objected to Davis inviting "Big Oil's best friend, Dick Cheney, to North Mississippi" and linked Cheney's candidate to "the skyrocketing cost of gas."

The Republican Party is finding out that their latest version of the Southern Strategy isn't working...and when they lose that, they are left with the issues.  And they lose there too.  

Race tracker wiki: MS-01

No exaggeration there. While we appreciate the deeper meaning of winning a PVI +10 R district in terms of what it means for November, so do they. There's no writing off our analysis. Check out the headlines:

Newsmax: GOP Loses Congressional Election, Faces Bloodbath in Nov.

Hot Air: Disaster: Democrat beats Republican in Mississippi special
election; Update: Panic time, say Boehner, Cole

Red State: Clean House at the NRCC

RCP: GOP Stunned By Loss in Mississippi

NRO:We Are Totally Frakked   [Mark Krikorian]

Add this to the mix:

Politico: Cole issues surrender declaration following Mississippi loss

This whole statement is an admission by Cole that he does not now how House Republicans can win in November as a group, so each member better protect himself or herself. To his credit, Cole has been warning his members that they need to run as outsiders this fall, but beyond that general admonition, the Oklahoma Republican can't show them a path to victory. It's an extraordinary statement by the head of a national campaign committee, but it is not one that's going to inspire any warm feelings from his GOP colleagues.

MSNBC: Why GOP’s Mississippi House loss resonates

Stunning? Only if you haven’t been paying attention in recent weeks.

Sickening? Yes, if you are a Republican.

US News: Mississippi Burning

The message is clear: Voters are angry with the Bush-Cheney administration, and some punishment is forthcoming. The economy, the war in Iraq, and the president's bull-headedness on the environment and energy are all in play

First Read: House GOPers Stomping Mad Over Prospects

House GOP leaders huddle at 11 a.m. today. That will be watched closely for any possibility of a coup or insurrection against leadership in the wake of this third consecutive loss of a GOP seat.

Imagine that... a consensus. The MS-01 special election bodes disaster for the GOP in November. Couldn't happen to a nicer minority party.

Race tracker wiki: MS-01

Remember this, from 5/11/2006?

BLITZER: Very quickly, is Howard Dean in trouble?

BEGALA: No. I think Candy's report was spot on.

He -- yes, he's in trouble, in that campaign managers, candidates, are really angry with him. He has raised $74 million and spent $64 million. He says it's a long-term strategy. But what he has spent it on, apparently, is just hiring a bunch of staff people to wander around Utah and Mississippi and pick their nose. That's not how you build a party. You win elections. That's how you build a party.

Funny, guess what happened in Mississippi yesterday?

No one could've ever predicted that investing in a state's infrastructure would make it easier to win elections in the future.

p.s. Begala apologized for these comments, but the larger point remains. Begala was reflecting the CW in establishment DC, which has always been against spending money in supposedly "hopeless" states like Mississippi.

Update: Ahh, I'd forgotten that Tim Tagaris, then at the DNC, quickly put up videos of two of those Mississippi nosepickers after Begalas comments.

Race tracker wiki: MS-01

The Republicans have accepted that Obama will be the Democratic nominee for President, even if the Clintonistas have not.  They've used the last two special elections for House seats to test aggressive ad campaigns attacking the presumptive Democratic nominee.  The approach has primarily been guilt by association.  Including linking the local candidate to Rev. Jeremiah Wright via Obama.

The voters in these two hard-core Republican House seats have rejected that entire approach.  It could be that the association with Obama might even have helped the Democrats Don Cazayoux (LA-06) and Travis Childers (MS-01).  There's been a lot of fearmongering from the Clinton camp that Obama won't hold up in a general election where everyone is voting, and the Republican attack machine is up an running.  That Obama will not be an asset for down-ticket races.

These results (plus in IL-14, where Obama deployed volunteers to help Bill Foster's win) show that there is zero merit to that argument.  Check out some of the failed advertising below the fold.

This is it, folks. The one. The final piece of straw set atop the shambling camel of the GOP, the one which clove its dessicated humps in two.

Only it's more like a ton of bricks crushing the Republican roach.

Let's take stock of this race to see what I mean:

• This district has a PVI of R+10. It voted for Bush 62-37 in the last election. Only seven Democrats sit in comparably red seats - and not a single Republican sits in a seat as blue as this one is red. And almost every major prognosticator (at least at the start) treated this as a safe seat.


• The GOP had a perfectly serviceable candidate in Greg Davis - a standard wingnut with none of the baggage of Woody Jenkins in LA-06 or Jim Oberweis in IL-14.


• The NRCC spent $1.3 million on this race. Freedom's Crotch spent at least $400K more - and used illegal tactics to boot. And of course Davis himself raised over a million.


• They sent in Mike Huckabee, Thad Cochran, Trent Lott, Haley Barbour, and Roger Wicker.


• And when that wasn't enough, Darth Cheney came to town, to stump and raise money.


• The GOP played up Obama/Pelosi/"librul" fear-mongering to the hilt. They were shameless in exploiting whatever racial angle they thought would work.

And yet what happened? Despite all this, Travis Childers just became the newest member of the Democratic Caucus with a resounding 54-46 win. It's utterly unspinnable. Even Tom Cole knew not to try.

But a sober press release only sees him through a single night. At dawn the next day, he has to face the same vast universe of problems that existed even before Childers won, except they will loom much larger and much more sharply. Almost every potentially contestable Republican seat is in play now. The "every man for himself" mentality that has taken hold amongst the GOP will become even more firmly entrenched, dooming already-weak NRCC fundraising. In Congress, discipline will likely suffer as vulnerable members (ie, much of the caucus) are tempted to side with the Dems. And we may even see some more retirements. Things are going to get much, much worse before they ever get better for the GOP - if they do at all.

For a lot of reasons, this to me is the sweetest of our three recent special election victories. But to the GOP, seldom has more bitter medicine passed their lips. Glib commentators will say that the Republican brand is tarnished. The fact is, it is the Republican Party which itself is broken.

And this election is what helped break it.

Race tracker wiki: MS-01

Every congressional race will be put in play. The Reverened Wright crap will not completely damage all Southern Dems. To go it a step further, the Southern Dem candidates should not adopt the pro-life pro gun pro traditional marriage arguments. Take it a step further and it shows that the Alabama Senate race is definitely in play. This certainly makes my argument that Vivian Figures can and will be competitive with money. This race is a bellweather of my theory that every race can be won.

http://www.actblue.com/...

No matter whom one backs in the Democratic primary, tonight was a great night for the Democratic party. With wins in MS-01 and in the NE-SEN primary, we all have reason to celebrate no matter whom your candidate was in West Virgina.

One thing we should all be happy about is how aggressive the DCCC has become in the last few months. Heck maybe the last few years! Back in the day they would not have touched a race like MS-01, yet alone the race in Louisiana.  Matter of fact they usually picked a few incumbents to defend and that would be the end of it. Not any more. They have the cash to take the fight to the gop and they are using it.

It's a great night to be a Dem on the Big Orange.  Let's uncork the mojo, donate to Obama and Kleeb, bring on the pooties and pie, and CELEBRATE!

And because it never gets old:

Republicans claim they are gleefull over Obama in the fall, that they'll wrap Jeremiah Wright around every Democrat. And they did so, heavily, leading up to today's special election:

Now remember that this is a deeply conservative district, one that Bush won with 63% of the vote in 2004. There are at least 50 about 110 Republican-held seats less conservative than this one. And it's a district in the Deep South, where scary black people are supposed to be particularly damaging to Democrats.

And yet, Democrat Travis Childers won the district by eight points.

Imagine that.

No matter how much opportunistic Clinton supporters claim that Obama is a problem this November, fact is, the problem has been and remains George W. Bush and the Republican Party. Distractions like Wright and "bitter" have been, and remain, irrelevant.

Race tracker wiki: MS-01

Congratulations to Travis Childers for winning a hard fought battle in Mississipi.

Everyone following that race were appallled at the tactics used by the NRCC and the local GOP.

http://www.startribune.com/...

You're mighty talkative tonight. Move all that chatter to this thread.

Race tracker wiki: MS-01 NE-Sen