A recent poll by the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics and SurveyUSA shows that Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jill Long Thompson is catching up to the Indiana incumbent, Mitch Daniels. For the past several months, Daniels has been leading Long Thompson. The new poll, which was conducted on June 10th-12th shows that Daniels's lead is decreasing.

Of the 452 people polled by SurveyUSA's callers, each candidate received about 49%. But, the poll also shows Daniels has an razor-thin edge among some groups of voters (depending on how the question was phrased). This race is becoming tighter, and for good reason. Daniels is sharply criticized for his judgment and Indiana's economy. For the full results, look to this webpage.

Congratulations to North Carolina State Senator Kay Hagan, who handily won the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate today.

State Sen. Kay Hagan (D) locked up her party’s nomination for a chance at Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) this fall. With about half of the precincts reporting, Hagan had 61 percent to 19 percent for her closest competitor, investment adviser Jim Neal (D).

Dole is favored to win a second term, but some Democrats believe Hagan is a sleeper candidate who can make the race very close.

Hagan now heads into the general election trailing Dole by seven points in polling, holding the incumbent under 50% re-elect, and having shown strong fundraising ability. North Carolina currently stands as one of the most promising second-tier Senate races in the country.

Meanwhile, in Indiana, the Democratic primary for Governor couldn't be closer. Democrats Jim Schellinger and Jill Long Thompson are deadlocked at 50%, with Schellinger leading by just 600 votes out of over 1.1 million cast, and with 263 precincts (out of 5280) yet to report.

Hopefully, we'll know by tomorrow. Whoever wins should have a terrific race against Indiana's current governor, famed Bush crony Mitch Daniels.

Update: With only 16 precincts left, Jill Long Thompson is up by 5,000 votes. She will almost certainly be the nominee. Congratulations to the former Congresswoman, and may she beat hell out of Mitch Daniels in the fall.

Race tracker wiki: NC-Sen IN-Gov

In her recent diary, CindyMax asked the question Can Indiana Primary be Swayed by Republicans?  The likely answer is "Very much," to the extent that Pazuzu's projection of a 12-point Clinton lead over Barack Obama is probably pretty close to the mark, if not underestimating Clinton's victory margin.

CindyMax is 100% correct in calling out Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels for his smirking remarks on NPR (at about the 3:40 mark of the clip), as follows:

Yesterday, Michelle Norris interviewed Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana on NPR. She raised the issue that a large number of republicans plan to participate in the democratic primary, many of whom are responding to the call of a popular conservative radio talk show host to vote for a particular candidate.

Ms. Norris commented on the smile on Governor Daniels' face when she raised the issue. His response, "Hey, some of 'em just want to have some fun . . ." "Hey, indulge us just a little bit . . . "

Governor Daniels' remarks and attitude demonstrate utter disdain and lack of respect for our electoral system. Granted, our system is flawed on many levels, but Governor Daniels' flip remarks indicate that it's good sport to exacerbate those flaws. His remarks are a disgrace to his office.

A week from Tuesday, voters in Indiana (and North Carolina) won't just be casting votes in the presidential primary - they'll be choosing downballot nominees as well. In Indiana, the hottest race on the Dem side is the gubernatorial primary. It features former Rep. Jill Long Thompson vs. architect Jim Schellinger.

Long Thompson held Indiana's 4th CD for a couple of terms in the early '90s until she was swept out in the Republican wave of '94. Schellinger, meanwhile, is a fairly wealthy first-time office seeker (he runs an architectural firm in Indianapolis) who has given a lot of money to fellow Dems over the years. Schellinger out-raised Long Thompson about $1.9 million to $1.1 million through March 31st, but the two are locked in a tight race, according to two very similar recent polls:

Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics at Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne (likely voters, 4/14-16):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 47
Jim Schellinger(D): 41
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±4.2%)

Research 2000 (likely voters, 4/21-24):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 48
Jim Schellinger (D): 42
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±5%)

Both candidates are vying to take on Bush apparatchik Mitch Daniels, whose job approval rating in the Research 2000 poll had him underwater at 42-49. Due to "My Man Mitch's" unpopularity, prognosticators consider IN-Gov to be one of the hottest gubernatorial races this cycle. Cook (PDF) and Rothenberg both have this race as a toss-up, while CQ puts it in the next-most competitive category, lean Republican. The polls show why:

Mike Downs Center:

Jim Schellinger (D): 46%
Mitch Daniels (R-inc.): 47%

Jill Long Thompson (D): 47%
Mitch Daniels (R-inc.): 48%
(MoE: ±2.8%)

Research 2000:

Jim Schellinger (D): 44
Mitch Daniels (R-inc.): 45
Undecided: 10

Jill Long Thompson (D): 45
Mitch Daniels (R-inc.): 45
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±4%)

As you can see, whichever candidate of ours emerges from the primary, we're going to give Mitch Daniels a real race this fall.

(Hat-tip: TXObserver & James.)

Race tracker wiki: IN-Gov

Presidential years are not the most active in terms of gubernatorial races, and 2008 is no exception, with only 11 states holding elections, only 5 of which are not entirely safe for the incumbent party. But there has been some movement within those 5 races, as many of them have gotten considerably (and unexpectedly) more competitive in the past few months.

This is cross-posted on Campaign Diaries.

From the Howey-Gauge poll of Indiana voters:

Obama had a 40-25 percent lead over U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton in the statewide Democratic May 6 primary.

snip

The Obama-Clinton poll segment of the poll was the first one conducted on the bitterly contested presidential race that could find Indiana front stage center leading into the May 6 primary. Obama had huge leads among younger voters (42-16 percent), males (40-26 percent), females (39-23 percent), African-Americans (68-3 percent) and white voters (34-30 percent).  "White females are the only demographic breakdown in which Hillary Clinton leads," said Davis, "and that is a narrow 31-29 percent."

As Bush's first budget chief, Mitch Daniel was the architect of our nation's huge deficits and ballooning debt. Somehow, he was able to parlay that into a successful Indiana gubernatorial bid in the strong GOP year 2004.

However, in 2006 Indiana showed signs of purpling by tossing three Republicans from its House delegation. Then a day or two ago, the Indianapolis Star released a poll showing that a generic Democratic presidential ticket was edging out a Republican one 37-32 in this deep Red state. If you threw Bayh in as vice-president (which I hope we wouldn't), the numbers became 47-33 in favor of the Democratic ticket.

Now, we see that Daniels himself isn't looking so hot.

Selzer & Co for the Indianapolis Star/WTHR. 11/13-16. All adults. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

The man who made  a mess out of our nation's finances is making such a mess out of Indiana's that its deeply Republican votes are angling for big change. Fitting.

Race tracker wiki: IN-Gov

A WTHR/Indianapolis Star poll this morning has some surprising results showing Republican Governor Mitch Daniels in serious trouble.  The conventional wisdom was that Daniels was possibly vulnerable, but that this was a lower tier pickup opportunity due to a lack of name candidates on the Dem side.  However, both former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson and businessman Jim Schellinger beat out Governor Daniels in head to head matchups despite virtually no name ID.  Daniels also has a 50% disapproval to 40% approval.

http://www.indystar.com/...

Half of Hoosiers likely to vote in next year's election disapprove of Gov. Mitch Daniels' performance, and the two Democrats vying for Daniels' job have at least as much voter support as he does, according to a new Indianapolis Star-WTHR (Channel 13) poll.

Of the 449 people surveyed who said they were likely to vote in the 2008 election, 44 percent said they would back Thompson if their choice was between Thompson and Daniels, while the governor received support from 43 percent of those surveyed.
In a match-up between Schellinger and Daniels, Schellinger was ahead 44 percent to 40 percent.

In honor of Blog Action Day, I point you to an article in yesterday's IndyStar concerning pollution control by Indiana steel mills located on Lake Michigan. The basic gist of the story:

The Environmental Protection Agency has moved to block Indiana's plans to issue a new pollution permit for the U.S. Steel mill in Gary.

The federal agency formally objected to the way Indiana environmental officials determined the amount of waste the mill could discharge, as well as how much time the mill would have to meet the permit limits. The objections are laid out in a letter dated Oct. 1 that was released late Friday.

Under federal law, the permit can not be issued without the EPA's approval.

Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels has yet another reason to worry this morning. The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza, in his popular weekly Governor's line, ranks Indiana's gubernatorial race as the fourth most attention deserving race in the country. His remarks:

Stateline.org has a nice article highlighting the political undoing of Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels. Highlights include:

Daniels’ constituents haven’t exactly rewarded him with affection. A September WISH-TV Indiana Poll found his approval rating at 45 percent positive, 47 percent negative. Only 39 percent of respondents would definitely re-elect him, 37 percent would replace him and 21 percent would consider voting for an opponent.

and...

(Cross-posted at my blog, An Enduring Democratic Majority).

Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels is in real trouble. Even Christine Gregoire of Washington, who was elected in 2004 by a mere 129 votes, has a higher approval rating than Governor Daniels.

According to Wikipedia, Daniels' approval rating has not been over 50 percent since 2005. As recent as April of 2006, Daniels was sitting at a pathetic 35 percent. Yet, Daniels is taking this all in stride as he makes plans to announce his reelection plans tomorrow at Butler University.

This diary is cross-posted at, An Enduring Democratic Majority.

Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels is probably the most endangered Republican of the 2008 cycle so far. With an approval rating that hasn't been over 50 percent since 2005, Daniels has already been targeted by national Democrats.

Today the Associated Press is reporting that Daniels will be making an "Important Announcement" on June 16 at Butler University. The prevailing opinion out of the Hoosier State seems to be that this announcement will be the kickoff to Daniels' 2008 reelection campaign.

Normally, when I read stories about terrible drunk driving accidents, I think, "There but for the grace of God, or just plain luck, could have gone I, back in the day."

But not this time.

This fatal DUI crime committed by a Federalist Society, National Republican Lawyers Association, Mitch Daniels hack last night is full of little details that show how awful these people are.

And Indiana bloggers supply some interesting background on top of that.

What they are like when they're caught, below.

Indianapolis - The House Rules and Legislative Procedures Committee will hear SJR-7, the proposed amendment to the Indiana Constitution to ban same-sex marriage and all "incidents of marriage" for unmarried couples, this Wednesday, March 21, 2007 at 9:00 a.m. in the House Chambers. This is a public hearing, and the community is encouraged to attend.

http://www.gayindy.org/...

Dungy: 'I embrace' same-sex marriage ban

During speech accepting award, Colts coach says his views coincide with group that backs amendment

http://www.indystar.com/...

More than a thousand state employees in Indiana will wake up Monday morning working for private companies as part of Governor Mitch Daniels' privatization of the Family and Social Services Administration. But even as Daniels and FSSA director Mitch Roob tell the state what a great opportunity for efficiency and savings this is, the federal government appears nervous that things may not go as smoothly as planned.

As the change takes place, the federal government is alerting the Family and Social Services Administration that it's monitoring its moves.

Days before 1,500 state workers officially go to work for IBM and Affiliated Computer Services to process Indiana food stamp and welfare applications, the U.S. Department of Agriculture signals they're keeping close watch.

The consistent government oversight comes as good news to David Warrick, a well-known opponent to the privatization.

"We're not aware of FNS ever having this kind of oversight over any kind of privatization project anywhere in the U.S. So I think that kind of emphasizes how leery of the program they are themselves," said Warrick, executive director of AFSCME Local 62 in Indianapolis.

If you ever want to truly understand rural, hell maybe even red, America, you need do just one thing: Really listen to John Mellecamp.  A native son of the Hoosier state, for almost as many years as I've been alive, Mellencamp has been telling the story about the forgotten America outside the metro areas that's been slowly fading away.  It's a painful thing to watch a way of life die, and that's what's happening.

Thomas wrote about the Illiana highway project and the regional planning commission's opposition to it earlier today. From Thomas, I expect this, though we've never actually met, I have what I think is a decent understanding of the guy. Walking through one of the buildings on campus earlier this week, I picked up a new paper that I had never seen before, the Purdue Review.  What attracted me was a headline on the frontpage, "The Real Toll of Illiana: The End of Rural Indiana", that turned out to be highly critical of Daniels adminstration.  All the more suprising then my realization that this was the new campus conservative newspaper. Opening the page to see the Gipper 6 inches from my kisser gave it away.