Whatever the polls may currently say about Elizabeth Dole's lead over Kay Hagan, it doesn't seem to matter to the DSCC. According to The Politico, they are about to bring the house down around Dole's head.

In the North Carolina and Oregon Democratic US Senate primaries this year, two great progressive candidates ran for the nomination: Jim Neal (NC) and Steve Novick (OR).  The DSCC, who is not supposed to pick sides in a primary, appears to have secretly funded their preferred candidates anyway (Kay Hagan (NC) and Jeff Merkley (OR)).

If the DSCC leaders personally had a preference, that’s fine.  BUT IT IS NOT OK TO FUNNEL MONEY TO ONE CANDIDATE OVER ANOTHER IN A DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY!!!!  That's unfairly taking sides and deliberately influencing an election, and that is not what the Democratic Party is about.

Yep, so at this point the sheer mass of polling data is such that it is time for me to tiptoe back into the water. The fact that school has let out for the summer (though I am teaching summer school) helps out, as well.

So today, the Following the Polls series that I began back in 2006 makes its permanent return. It will start as a weekly series (Friday seems to be the logical day), and then it will become daily once we get past Labor Day.

And, week one of the series sees a big polling week, as there are 35 separate races that were polled this week. Head past the flip for all the numerical goodness.

I know, I know...it's not likely, but a brother can dream can't he?

Following up on my post from yesterday and incorporating some of the suggestions/corrections from the comments made there, let's take a look at our best case scenario in the November Senate elections.

Right now, we're at 49 Ds, 49 Rs and 2 I's.  When the smoke clears on election night in November we'll be at 62 Ds, 37 Rs and 1 I.
Here's how it's going to happen....

Several polls taken right over the weeks after the North Carolina primary show that the race for the senate has reached the top tier. now is as good a time as any to help me raise the maximum single donation for Kay Hagan on my Turn Carolina Blue page.

Here’s how the Dems can win a filibuster-proof 60 seat majority in the U.S. Senate.  It’s not going to be easy, but it can happen.

Right now, there are 49 Republicans, 49 Democrats and 2 Independents (Sanders-VT & Lieberman-CT) who both caucus with the Dems.

In November of 2008, there will be 33 Senate seats up for election AND one special election - to replace the retired Trent Lott-MS.  For the Dems to achieve a 60 seat super-majority they will need to win 9 seats that are now held by a Republican.  Here are the 9 seats that are in reach:

So with less than half a year to go, it’s time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent.  So I’ll rank these in terms of tiers.  The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching.  The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point.  Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play.  And the safe seats?  Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

Follow me below the fold for all the races.  This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there.  Also see my previous March diary to see what things have changed since my last update.

It's been five LOOOONG months since I last posted a Senate '08 diary. Back then, Fidel Castro still ran Cuba (in name, at least) and Iowa was anyone's game to predict. Two weeks before my diary was posted, a loon held Clinton's Rochester, New Hampshire office hostage for several hours. And about the time my diary was posted, the hottest news on Campaign Trail '08 was Sex On the City (if you don't remember, it's okay...it was Rudy Giuliani's 497th scandal of 2007).

Anyway, much has changed, and the Senate '08 picture has seemingly gotten brighter and brighter for the Democrats. Retaining a Senate majority seems just about assured, and expanding it significantly looks likely. That's what a basket-case economy and unanimously disdained President will do for the opposition party. Good times.

My Senate roundup below the fold! . . .

[I was having Internet troubles yesterday, which is why the roundup is going up today. My apologies! -brownsox]

NC-Sen: Still more exciting polling news out of North Carolina's Senate race: Republican Elizabeth Dole leads Democrat Kay Hagan by just two points, 45% to 43%.

Meanwhile, the venerable Cook Political Report has moved their rating of North Carolina's Senate race to "Likely Republican". Current momentum is certainly with Hagan, and it's already a close race, so there's every reason to feel good about our chances. In fact, I think this ranking is slightly conservative: Swing State Project has moved their ranking of NC-Sen to "Leans Republican", and I'd have to go along with that.

MS-Sen: Meanwhile, in the wake of dueling polls showing a tight race in Mississippi (one of them showing Democrat Ronnie Musgrove leading by 8 points, the other showing Republican Roger Wicker up by four), Cook has moved their ranking of MS-Sen all the way from "Likely Republican" to "Toss Up".

Having a top-tier Senate race in Mississippi is remarkable, and having that race called as a tossup nearly six months before the election is even more so. I think Cook's ranking may be very slightly generous-I'd call the race "Lean Republican", but it makes a good bit of sense.

NH-Sen: Rasmussen has released their latest poll out of New Hampshire, and it shows Democrat Jeanne Shaheen leading Republican incumbent John Sununu by seven points, 50% to 43%. In April, the numbers looked almost the same, with Shaheen leading 51% to 43%.

The polling numbers, particularly from Rasmussen, have been exceptionally stable, and they've consistently shown Shaheen with a substantial lead. I don't think she has this race locked down, not by a long shot, but what's not to like about a consistent lead?

OR-Sen: Well, that didn't take long; the Dark Side is already astroturfing Oregon papers with ads attacking Democratic Senate candidate Jeff Merkley.

An anti-union group run out of a Washington, D.C., lobbyist’s office has taken out full-page ads in Oregon’s two biggest daily newspapers questioning Senate candidate Jeff Merkley’s support for a change in how unions are formed.

The ads in The Register-Guard and The Oregonian Thursday argue against the "card-check" method of winning employee approval for unionizing private workplaces. Merkley, a Democrat, supports federal legislation allowing the card-check approach, while the Republican senator he is challenging, Gordon Smith, has opposed it.

Meanwhile, Merkley and his primary opponent, Steve Novick, held a unity event yesterday morning, enabling Oregon Democrats to turn their attention to the common cause of taking out Gordon Smith.

House Races

UT-02: Jim Matheson drinks your milkshake. He drinks it up!

Dan Jones and Associates. 5/13-19.

From the Deseret Morning News:

Matheson continues to drive Utah GOP leaders nuts with his 2nd District popularity.

Bless him.

NY-13: In the fight to save the seat of disgraced incumbent Vito Fossella, the GOP is now 0-for-2 in recruiting. The island's great Republican prize, Richmond County DA Daniel Donovan, opted out of the race first, only to be joined by county clerk Stephen Fiala:

Republican County Clerk Stephen Fiala has taken his name out of the running to replace Rep. Vito Fossella (R-Staten Island/Brooklyn) in the House of Representatives.

"My best judgment has led me to the decision not to run for Congress," Fiala told the Advance.

Fiala said he was concerned about his ability to raise money for the race and looking down the road, said he believed that the congressional district would be redrawn to favor a Democrat after the 2010 census.

This leaves State Senator Andrew Lanza as the leading GOP candidate should he decide to run. That's just fine by New York Democrats, who are fighting to gain control of the State Senate.

Meanwhile, Democratic Sen. Diane Savino also will not run, which should help us avoid a primary and a State Senate opening.

AL-02, AL-03, AL-05: The Democratic tide has spread well into "red Alabama", as the Press-Register Reports. We have two, perhaps three hot House races in the state, including two pickup opportunities. I'd consider both of those long shots, but viable nonetheless, AL-02 especially.

But the 2nd Congressional District in Alabama's Wiregrass region is emerging as a surprise battleground.

Republicans have held the seat since 1965. After his first election in 1992, Everett never faced a serious challenge. In 2004, Bush carried the district, which includes Dothan and part of Montgomery, with 67 percent of the vote.

Between the two major parties, a total of nine candidates are now jostling for a chance at the seat in the June 3 primaries. But Democrats claimed a coup earlier this year when Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright chose to run under their banner after being courted by both parties. Campaign disclosure reports show that Bright is already attracting contributions from national party power-brokers such as House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md.

After the Democratic pick- ups in Louisiana and Mississippi, a Bright victory would "absolutely represent the next step in this march," said John Anzalone, a Montgomery pollster who is working for Bright and was also involved in the other two campaigns.

Bright had initially lagged in the fundraising game, but he has picked it up of late, as Swing State Project reports. National Democrats are very excited about Bright's candidacy.

Meanwhile, in the 5th District, things are looking good in our attempt to hold the seat of retiring Democrat Bud Cramer, despite the district's R+6.5 PVI.

Democrats have also scored some breaks in the race for the conservative-leaning 5th Congressional District, which Cramer has represented since 1991. Republicans have long eyed the seat as a prime pick-up opportunity.

While both parties face contested primaries, the presumed Democratic front-runner is state Sen. Parker Griffith, a wealthy retired oncologist from Huntsville who has already secured Cramer's endorsement. The best-known candidate in the Republican field appears to be Wayne Parker, an insurance agency executive from Huntsville who twice lost to Cramer in the 1990s.

In the 3rd District, young Democrat Josh Segall is waging a surprisingly strong campaign against incumbent Republican Mike Rogers. Kossacks clammyc and thereisnospoon conducted a BlogTalkRadio interview with Segall today, as a matter of fact, so check that out to find more about one of the best dark-horse candidates this cycle.

OR-05: As Swing State Project and Daily Kos had done previously, the Cook Political Report has changed their rating of OR-05 to "Leans Democratic", a reflection that they have about as much faith in Mike "I Don't Know What Cocaine Looks Like" Erickson, as we do.  

CA-11: Dean Andal, chief challenger to Democratic incumbent Rep. Jerry McNerney, has had an impressively bad time fundraising these last few months. In the month and a half since last filing, Andal has raised a grand total of $11,000.

That's eleven thousand whole dollars! This, despite having spent the vast majority of his time in the State Assembly hangin' with lobbyists, and having high-profile friends like John McCain to help him out.

Andal's sitting on over $500K on hand, so he isn't exactly broke. But the fact that he just raised $11K in six weeks, and just over $100K in 2008, has to be some comfort to Jerry McNerney.

Race tracker wiki: NC-Sen MS-Sen NH-Sen OR-Sen UT-02 AL-02 AL-03 AL-05 NY-13 OR-05 CA-11

a Democratic Congress!

A little background: I've been living out of my truck since September, working for various progressive Democratic causes across the country. In September, I went to Jena. In the fall, I led a grassroots group to save mass transit funding in Charlotte, NC while working on the Democratic coordinated campaign for the local races in Charlotte. In November, I started working in Iowa for Joe Biden. And in January, I moved to Chapel Hill to work for Jim Neal. But I'm turning 23 today on the 23rd, and I'm ready to work for a Democratic Congress the best way I know how - with ActBlue!

What's kept me sane has been the generosity and energy of the volunteers on all of these campaigns. I met some of the nicest people (and best cooks) I've ever met in Iowa, while activists in Chapel Hill graciously opened their houses to me. I owe a lot of friends - some of them bloggers here at Daily Kos - a big thank you for their help (a few of them even thought enough of me to elect me as a Democratic Presidential Elector in NC-12 earlier this week).

So, in the spirit of gratitude - all I want for my birthday is Democratic victory in November!

George W. Bush appears to desire the complete destruction of the Republican Party for the next forty years even more ardently than he wants to fund his war in Iraq. Or so I am lead to believe by a recent spate of incomprehensible policy decisions. He has given the Democratic Party an arsenal of tools to use against both John McCain, and nearly every Republican incumbent up for re-election in the Senate. It is July 4 in May!

Democrats in the Senate have been unable to pass a series of extremely popular and necessary programs due to stiff opposition from the Bush Administration and Senate Republican leadership. Instead of giving up, Democratic Leadership has attached the programs to the Supplemental Appropriations Bill which funds the War in Iraq. The President, who has suddenly discovered "fiscal responsibility," is threatening to veto the bill unless the offensive amendments are removed. His water carriers, Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) are working hard behind the scenes to insure that Republicans uphold the President's veto.

Senate Republicans who are up for re-election in November (or ever) face an unsettling dilemma.

OR-Sen: Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley narrowly defeated Steve Novick yesterday to win the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. This race inspired a lot of passion over the last several months on behalf of both candidates, and I credit both men for running impressive campaigns.

Best to Speaker Merkley as he takes on Republican Sen. Gordon Smith in the fall. There's some very good news on the polling fron; a DSCC poll shows Smith leading Merkley by just three points, 45% to 42%. Better yet, Smith's approvals are abominable; he receives just 29% job approval, with 55% disapproving.

That's a big window of opportunity for Merkley, if the polling is correct.

NC-Sen: Reinforcing all the other North Carolina polling of the last couple weeks, SUSA's latest shows Sen. Elizabeth Dole leading Democrat Kay Hagan by just four points, 50% to 46%.

All the polls can't be wrong; Dole is in a box of trouble this cycle. She knows it, too, as the former NRSC chairwoman is suddenly going to her opponent on bended knee, begging for her to refuse national money for her race.

TX-Sen: Republican Senator John Cornyn, the target of a new VoteVets ad urging him to vote for the 21st Century GI Bill, has lashed out at the veterans' organization, and VoteVets has responded:

In today's edition of Roll Call, Cornyn's spokesman responded to an ad launched by VoteVets.org calling on Cornyn to vote for a new GI Bill by saying, "The anti-war crowd is determined to use our men and women in uniform for their political advantage, even if our national security is jeopardized in the process."

In response, Brandon Friedman, an Iraq and Afghanistan Veteran from Dallas, and Vice Chair of VoteVets.org said, "Senator Cornyn's response to veterans is ignorant, insulting, and beneath his office.  The GI Bill has nothing to do with the decision to go to war, or the course in Iraq, nor would it jeopardize security.  The GI Bill was a sacred promise enacted by President Roosevelt, and all we are asking for is that America not default on that promise."

Friedman added, "Further, to accuse veterans of using ourselves as a political football is pernicious and absurd. Apparently, veterans do not have the right to ask Senator Cornyn to do the right thing, or else we'll be smeared.  At least we now know what Senator Cornyn thinks of those of us who served this nation in combat."

I am really at a loss as to explain how lobbying for the GI Bill endangers our national security.

CO-Sen: kos wrote earlier about the latest Rasmussen polling, which shows Democrat Mark Udall leading his Republican opponent, Bob Schaffer, by six points, 47% to 41%.

Frankly, after Schaffer's recent misadventures (both his "Mt. Macaca moment", and his unpleasant ties to Jack Abramoff and the Northern Marianas scandal, I'd almost hoped for more. But this certainly isn't bad, and things are only going to get worse for Schaffer.

AK-Sen: Kossacks clammyc and thereisnospoon will be interviewing Senate candidate Mark Begich at 5 PM Eastern today on BlogTalkRadio, in the lastest instalment of an excellent series of candidate interviews. If you're able to tune in, please do.

NH-Sen: Jeanne Shaheen's first ad is up:

Blue Hampshire's Dean Barker:

As a positive (re)introduction spot, I feel it hits all those notes it's meant to about reminding us what we had, and by (John Sununu's) absence, what we can do without.

KY-Sen: Bruce Lunsford has won his primary handily over Greg Fischer, and heads into the general election against Mitch McConnell. The most recent round of polling showed McConnell under 50% against Lunsford, leading 48% to 36%. It's going to be an incredibly difficult battle for Lunsford (who I don't like very much to begin with), but hopefully he can make McConnell sweat a little, and keep him from utilizing his legendary fundraising prowess to aid other Republican Senate candidates.

House Races

OR-05: Despite last week's scandal involving allegations of cocaine use, mistresses and abortions (quite a trifecta there for conservatives), Mike Erickson has won his primary in Oregon's 5th, and will face off against Democrat Kurt Schrader in the race to succeed Democratic Rep. Darlene Hooley. I'd call this race "lean Dem" at this point.

MO-06: In one of the hottest races in the country, Republican incumbent Sam Graves holds a holds a 10-point lead over Democrat Kay Barnes, 49% to 39%, according to SUSA. The good news is that Graves is under 50%, which leaves a good opening for Barnes here. The DCCC will be deeply invested in this race, so hopefully they can use their tremendous cash advantage to help Barnes close this gap.

CO-04: Despite the solidly Republican bent of this district, surprisingly close races are getting to be a Musgrave Ritual. The internal polls of Democratic candidate Betsy Markey show her leading her Republican opponent, the odious Marilyn Musgrave, by seven points, 43% to 36%.

The best response the Musgrave campaign could give? Their own internals show Musgrave leading 47% to 42%.

Frankly, with nearly six months before election day, I would not be trumpeting a poll that shows me leading an opponent with inferior name recognition by just five points. If I were the incumbent.

But then, Musgrave is maybe not the wisest Rep in DC.

NH-02: Jennifer Horn, candidate for the Republican nomination against freshman Democrat Paul Hodes, sports an impressive new endorsement: Jackie Mason's.

As Blue Hampshire's Dean Barker notes in a must-read piece, this is a tremendous victory for hilarity, if not for civility. This is the man whose endorsement Horn welcomes:

Giuliani Drops Comedian Over Remarks
By DON TERRY
Published: September 28, 1989

Rudolph W. Giuliani said yesterday that the comedian Jackie Mason would no longer have a role in his mayoral campaign, after a newspaper quoted Mr. Mason as making racially charged remarks about blacks and Jews.

...''There is a sick Jewish problem of voting for a black man no matter how unfit he is for the job,'' Mr. Mason said. ''All you have to do is to be black and don't curse the Jews directly and the Jew will vote for a black in a second. Jews are sick with complexes.''

He went on: ''The Jews are constantly giving millions of dollars to the black people. Have you ever heard of a black person giving a quarter to a Jew? I never heard a black person say we have to help the poor Jews.''

Man, you've got to be a real piece of work if Rudy Giuliani kicked you off his campaign twenty years ago. And this is just one of many such statements.

From Dean:

Absolutely, positively, the dumbest decision to trumpet an endorsement I have ever seen, inside or outside of  New Hampshire.  I've got no words for the magnitude of stoopid needed to think this was a wise campaign decision.

NY-13: The New York Times has a good article on the battle for the nomination to succeed Vito Fossella in this Staten Island-based district:

Shortly after Mr. Fossella announced his decision Tuesday, two Democrats from Staten Island said they were interested in the seat: Councilman Michael E. McMahon, who has represented northern Staten Island since 2002, and Michael Cusick, a state assemblyman who represents an area in the center of the island.

"I am having earnest discussions with the other folks who are interested and the county leaders in Staten Island and Brooklyn," Mr. McMahon said Tuesday. "I’m hopeful that we can come to a decision very quickly. Because of the short time frame, it’s important that we unite around a candidate rather than having a primary fight."

Similarly, Mr. Cusick said that "ultimately, the goal is to win in November" and that "it would be preferable not to have a primary and for the Democrats to work things out."

There is still Mr. Harrison, who ran against Mr. Fossella two years ago and did better than any previous challenger, winning 43 percent of the vote. Despite being overlooked by Democratic leaders in Brooklyn and on Staten Island, Mr. Harrison issued a statement after Mr. Fossella’s decision became public. "I have not been running against Vito Fossella," he said. "I have been running for Congress and I will continue to do so."

On the Republican side, Staten Island DA Daniel Donovan and State Sen. Andrew Lanza are the frontrunners. The excellent NY13 blog has a good breakdown of all the rumored and declared candidates in both parties, and is eminently worth reading.

Race tracker wiki: OR-Sen TX-Sen AK-Sen KY-Sen NC-Sen NH-Sen OR-05 MO-06 CO-04 NH-02 NY-13

How's this for craven hypocrisy; the party that brought you "Call Me, Harold" in 2006, is now begging for Democrats to keep national money out of Senate races.

Leading the way, of course, is the very selfsame Senator who chaired the NRSC in 2006, when that odious RNC ad ran.

One of U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole's top campaign advisors says he has asked the state and national Republican parties, as well as the National Republican Senatorial Committee, to steer clear of advertising in North Carolina's U.S. Senate race.

And he's calling on Jerry Meek, chairman of the N.C. Democratic Party, to do likewise with his Democratic counterparts.

"You can agree to not run advertising targeting Senator Dole during the 2008 election cycle as well as encourage your Senate nominee and national parties to abstain from third party advertisements," Mark Stephens, Dole's chief campaign strategist, said in a letter today to Meek.

So, let me get this straight; former NRSC chairwoman Elizabeth Dole, whose very job description put her in charge of steering national money to Senate races around the country in 2006, and running NRSC ads in those states...the same Elizabeth Dole who spent millions of NRSC dollars attacking Jon Tester, Jim Webb, Sheldon Whitehouse and Sherrod Brown...is now asking that the national parties stay out of her race?

Where does she get the gall?

Is it because the DSCC's been a fundraising juggernaut this cycle? Because the cash-strapped NRSC would be bringing a knife to a political gun fight for these candidates?

Nah. It's got to be in the name of civility, of course.

Strange, but when I think of Senate races, national party ads, and civility, my mind goes to this:

Dole isn't alone, naturally. Maine's Susan Collins has asked for the same:

"One of the biggest sources of negative ads are the national parties. We [Susan Collins' campaign] would make Congressman Allen this offer - if he will tell the Democratic Party not to run any television or radio ads in this campaign, we would make the same demand of the Republican Party. An arrangement such as that would be a huge step toward ensuring that the campaigns control the tone and the content of the television ads in this campaign."

As Senate Guru notes, Collins had no problem taking national money in her 2002 race. Neither did Dole, when she faced Erskine Bowles. Of course, the NRSC was positively flush back in those halcyon days.

From the Guru (props to him for picking up this story):

The only, I repeat - only, reason that Dole and Collins made these politically theatrical comments to their Democratic challengers is that the DSCC has $20 million more than the NRSC to spend on their candidates.

And, you know, it's just not fair that anybody has more money to play with than Republicans! They're supposed to be the rich ones!

Hilarious.

And pathetic.

Race tracker wiki: NC-Sen ME-Sen

It's only May and Elizabeth Dole must already feel the heat as Kay Hagan's campaign is drawing national praise and attention. The Charlotte News and Observor is reporting that Liddy has "reassigned" (read: fired) her campaign manager.

After simmering in the shadows of some of the bigger races for the year, the senate race in North Carolina is gaining national attention and Kay Hagan is gaining widespread praise as a candidate, premiering on Chris Cilliza's tope ten senate races.

This is number seven in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole pack of cigarettes.  Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.

This time, we look at North Carolina, the state that made Barack Obama the Democratic nominee for President!

[Originally posted at Senate Guru.]

You read that right.  The Senate Guru is going on strike for Kay Hagan!  Currently, on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page, Hagan is at $50 raised.  Well, the Guru will not write another post until Hagan has crossed the $300 mark.  That's right!  The Guru is on strike until the community contributes another $250 to Hagan.

(More below the fold.)

Congratulations to North Carolina State Senator Kay Hagan, who handily won the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate today.

State Sen. Kay Hagan (D) locked up her party’s nomination for a chance at Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) this fall. With about half of the precincts reporting, Hagan had 61 percent to 19 percent for her closest competitor, investment adviser Jim Neal (D).

Dole is favored to win a second term, but some Democrats believe Hagan is a sleeper candidate who can make the race very close.

Hagan now heads into the general election trailing Dole by seven points in polling, holding the incumbent under 50% re-elect, and having shown strong fundraising ability. North Carolina currently stands as one of the most promising second-tier Senate races in the country.

Meanwhile, in Indiana, the Democratic primary for Governor couldn't be closer. Democrats Jim Schellinger and Jill Long Thompson are deadlocked at 50%, with Schellinger leading by just 600 votes out of over 1.1 million cast, and with 263 precincts (out of 5280) yet to report.

Hopefully, we'll know by tomorrow. Whoever wins should have a terrific race against Indiana's current governor, famed Bush crony Mitch Daniels.

Update: With only 16 precincts left, Jill Long Thompson is up by 5,000 votes. She will almost certainly be the nominee. Congratulations to the former Congresswoman, and may she beat hell out of Mitch Daniels in the fall.

Race tracker wiki: NC-Sen IN-Gov