By all accounts, Don Cazayoux owes his seat in Congress to the fact that the Repubs picked the wrong candidate in the primary--nutburger ex-state rep Woody Jenkins.

Well, per a report from Baton Rouge's newspaper, The Advocate, Jenkins appears to be a glutton for punishment.

"I am close to making a decision, and that decision will probably be to run," Jenkins said in an e-mail Tuesday.

Jenkins said that since the May election, he has been contacted by hundreds of supporters, volunteers and contributors urging him to run again. He said his campaign team is still intact and ready for another race.

"Their feeling is that the results on May 3 were primarily the product of low voter turnout, and that a high turnout and the dynamics of the presidential election on Nov. 4 would lead to a different result," Jenkins said in his e-mail.

One problem--this isn't the same district that elected Repubs for 33 years.  And another problem--the national party wasn't exactly enthused about him (the NRCC reportedly refused to put in a dime unless he met certain financial benchmarks).

Congratulations to Congressman-elect Don Cazayoux, new Representative of Louisiana's 6th District, and to all who had a hand in his election. The Sixth District, which voted for Bush 55-43 in 2000 and 59-40 in 2004, will be represented by a Democrat for the first time since the Dixiecrat era.

This was a terrific win for the party, for a number of reasons. First, it is always exciting and inspiring to win an election in such strongly Republican territory. Only 15 Democratic Representatives out of 235 hail from more GOP-friendly districts than Louisiana's 6th, and taking another seat on such red turf is yet another indicator that Democrats are in the catbird seat heading into November. This is the second special-election victory in a former Republican stronghold within the span of three months, and it was nearly accompanied by another victory in the crimson First District of Mississippi (and may yet be, come the May 13 runoff).

We had no real business winning this district, but we managed to do so anyway, by running a candidate who was a good fit for the district, by wisely allocating national party resources to help that candidate compete, and by simply being lucky enough to face a genuine nutcase on the Republican side.

Needless to say, this is a major feather in the cap of the DCCC, and a terrific blow to our Republican counterparts. NRCC chairman Tom Cole must be losing his breakfast, especially on the heels of the loss in IL-14, and facing another possible loss in an even redder district (MS-01). On our side, the DCCC did a fine job; they fended off the combined forces of the NRCC, Freedom's Watch, and the Club for Growth, and came out on top.

The Club for Growth has been backing losing candidates for some time-they're far more interested, it seems, in having doctrinaire nutters on the Republican ticket than in actually winning a majority-but this is a particularly bad black eye for Freedom's Watch, a group which has already taken a lot of hits. Having targeted LA-06 as their first big experiment-apparently, backing Woody Jenkins was the first thing their leadership could agree on as a priority for this cycle-Freedom's Watch looks positively impotent. They were supposed to be the scary new kid on the block, the shadowy Republican hit squad doing all the GOP's dirty work this election cycle. But if they can't swing a special election in an R+6.5 district, they're going to have the devil's own time swinging the presidential election.

As reported, the GOP's strategy in this election was to tie Cazayoux to national Democrats like Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi. I should think that the results speak for themselves, and that they indicate that this strategy has failed. From the Wall Street Journal:

Don Cazayoux's victory against Woody Jenkins to represent Louisiana's Sixth District, a seat held by Republicans for decades, has further boosted Democrats' optimism heading in to the fall elections.

Not only were Democrats able to increase their majority in the House, but Mr. Cazayoux emerged the winner despite a multimillion-dollar national and local effort to nationalize the race by defining him as a liberal Democrat in lockstep with Mr. Obama.

At the very least, their efforts to demonize Cazayoux by linking him to Obama proved a double-edged sword. Although Woody Jenkins did outperform expectations in several areas of the district, and it's possible that that was due to the NRCC's attempts to link Cazayoux to Obama, it was certainly negated by increased black turnout in East Baton Rouge, which appears to have ultimately provided Cazayoux with his margin of victory. In other words, the GOP lost at least as much by alienating black voters as they may or may not have gained with these attacks.

DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen had a nice comment on these tired old Republican tactics:

"For the second time this cycle, Republicans were reminded that ‘all politics is local,’" said Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen , the DCCC chairman. Saying that "House Republicans tried to nationalize this election," Van Hollen stated that the GOP "used false and deceptive special interest smears and funneled nearly a million dollars into a district that Republicans held for more than three decades."

Van Hollen claimed that Cazayoux "won by focusing on the concerns of LA-06 voters — good paying jobs, affordable health care, and better education."

Demonizing the national Democrats is in no way going to be enough to win them this election. They went hard after Obama and Pelosi, as they have gone after Bill Clinton and Al Gore and Howard Dean and John Kerry and Hillary Clinton in the past. And they have nothing to show for it, except a humiliating loss in a former Republican stronghold.

If running against national Dems in a district where Kerry got 40% of the vote in 2004 isn't enough to save their crappy candidates, it won't be enough to save them anywhere. The GOP had better come up with something new if they want to start turning things around.

Unfortunately, according to Minority Leader John Boehner, they are counting on us to do their jobs for them. Essentially, the GOP is relying on the Democratic presidential battle to drive voters away from the party; they know very well they're cooked in downballot races if it does not. Their last hope for this cycle is that they can use national Democrats to sink the local candidates on the ballot, and the LA-06 results are a strong indicator that that won't work very well.

One final irony from this election is that the GOP loss can, in a sense, be thrown at the feet of one of the party's rising stars, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal. For it was Jindal who backed Republican Jim Tucker to serve as Speaker of the Louisiana House, a decision which essentially gave Tucker the speakership despite a 53-50 advantage for Democrats in the House.

The Democratic candidate whom Jindal passed over was Don Cazayoux. It is likely that if Jindal had selected Cazayoux to serve as speaker, he would not have elected to run for the U.S. House, and Republicans might well still hold this seat.

Be careful what you wish for, Governor Jindal.

Race tracker wiki: LA-06

Just before 10PM last night I was standing in a crowd of people at the Women’s Club in downtown Baton Rouge, Don Cazayoux’s election headquarters, anxiously watching election returns from the Louisiana Secretary of State’s web site being projected onto a screen.  The print was hard to read but a friend standing next to me confirmed that arch-conservative Woody Jenkins was holding on to a slim lead with only 25 of 314 precincts in East Baton Rouge Parish left to report.  On a day where turnout was an anemic 23%, Jenkins had built his lead early on the strength of hardcore support in his base in rural Livingston Parish and held on even as results from Baton Rouge slowly came in.  

Louisiana special election results:

Sixth District

99% of Precincts Reporting

Don Cazayoux (D):          49% (49312)
Woody Jenkins (R):         46% (46282)

Update: Jenkins has regained the lead in East Baton Rouge, which is where almost all of the outstanding precincts are.

Update #2: We're ahead! We're ahead! With 79% of the vote in, Cazayoux is leading by over two thousand votes.

Update #3: It's over! We win! 99% in, Cazayoux appears to have won by 3,000 votes. Congratulations, Rep.-elect Cazayoux!

Race tracker wiki: LA-06

Louisiana special election results:

Sixth District

61% of Precincts Reporting

Don Cazayoux (D):          47% (28672)
Woody Jenkins (R):         49% (30039)

First District

55% of Precincts Reporting

Gilda Reed (D):                25% (5804)
Steve Scalise (R):            73% (17072)

As you probably know, the Sixth District race is expected to be close, and a possible Democratic pickup; the race has received a good deal of national attention over the past few weeks. The First District, on the other hand, is about as red as they come.

Update by kos: SSP has a handy results chart of the LA-06 April 5th runoff election, so you can get a good idea in which parishes Cazayoux should perform well:

Ascension and Livingston parishes are the GOP strongholds here. Iberville, St. Helena, and Pointe Coupee (where Cazayoux's home is located) are strong Democratic parishes in local and federal elections and Cazayoux should perform well here tonight. East and West Feliciana are historically Democratic, but have trended GOP in federal elections in recent years. Between the runoff performance and Cazayoux's small town profile, I feel optimistic about the Democratic chances in Feliciana tonight.

Update: With 6% in, there's been a break for Jenkins, as he has opened a nine-point lead (mostly from votes coming in from his stronghold in Livingston Parish). It's still very, very early.

Update #3: Nearly 30% of results in, and while it's early, things look good so far for the GOP. Jenkins has a six-point lead, and LA-01 is the GOP blowout everyone expected.

Update #4: 45% in in LA-06, and Jenkins leads by nine. Cazayoux is getting beaten badly in East Baton Rouge. He needs roughly 54% of the remaining vote to win, and that looks like a tall order.

Update #5: It ain't over! 60% in, Cazayoux is back to within 1500 votes.

Update #6: Cazayoux continues to inch upward. This is looking like a nailbiter again. We're going to start a new thread shortly.

Race tracker wiki: LA-01 LA-06

For me, politics is football, and election day is game day. Well, in the LA-06, it's game day, and according to  Talking Points Memo, the red team is just about ready to concede defeat in a plce they would have won easily in another time.

The ideologues of the ultra-right want to hold on to the Louisiana Sixth congressional District seat in the worst possible way.  The GOP, through the extremist group Freedom's Watch, is explicitly connecting Don Cazayoux's bid to fill the congressional seat vacated by Richard Baker with Barack Obama's run for the Presidency.  A New York Times article  states that if Don loses, Barack will get blamed for hurting his effort.

Cross-posted over at Daily Kingfish.

So, tomorrow is the special general election for LA-06 between Republican Woody Jenkins and Democrat Don Cazayoux.  

Apparently robocalls are being made to registered African-American voters here in LA-06 tonight, with the script roughly along these lines:

"The Democratic Party has never funded any African-American candidate in this district, and Don Cazayoux has no endorsements from any African-American leaders in the community"

Tomorrow is special-election day in Louisiana's 1st and 6th Districts, and with a red-hot race in the 6th District favoring Democrat Don Cazayoux, the GOP is putting everything they can into avoiding an embarrassing loss in bright-red territory.

Republican Woody Jenkins has proven to be a drain on party resources; he's been a lousy fundraiser, and his controversial, David Duke-tinged past has forced outside groups-the NRCC, the Club for Growth, and the shadowy Freedom's Watch-to dump hundreds of thousands of dollars into a race in which they still trail by a large margin. In that sense, his candidacy is somewhat reminiscent of that of Jim Oberweis, another widely disliked perennial candidate who most recently lost election in Illinois' 14th District to Democrat Bill Foster.

Meanwhile, one seeming advantage for Republican Jenkins at the campaign’s outset — the fact that he was much better-known than Cazayoux — is a two-edged sword. Over the course of a 28-year tenure as Louisiana state legislator (1972-2000), Jenkins lost four statewide campaigns. Three of those bids were for the U.S. Senate, including a very close loss to Democrat Mary L. Landrieu in the 1996 general election, and one was for state elections commissioner. So while Jenkins can claim extensive political experience, it is difficult for him to portray himself as a political outsider at a time when many voters think that Congress and the Bush administration haven’t come close to solving the nation’s problems.

In fact, Jenkins has drawn comparisons to Oberweis, the dairy executive and frequent candidate who lost that Illinois special election in March. Oberweis had high negative ratings in part because he had waged three losing campaigns for statewide office, and it was hard for him to rehabilitate his image as a flawed candidate.

"Probably an additional factor in Louisiana is Woody Jenkins has been around a long time. This is the same thing we had to some degree with Oberweis," NRCC chief Cole admitted. "You get some scar tissue if you’re in politics and you make tough calls and tough decisions."

Unfortunately, Jenkins' proxies are running into their own troubles: a CBS affiliate in Baton Rouge pulled the Freedom's Watch ad from the air after the Cazayoux campaign correctly argued that it was false. Nicely done, watchers of freedom.

As Republicans always do, they have tried to divert attention from Jenkins (who is disliked) and Cazayoux (who is liked) by using Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi as their big bad liberal scarecrows. The new scarecrows are in wonderful company, of course, following in the proud footsteps of every prominent national Democrat before them. We'll see how well it works for them; the last poll showed Cazayoux leading by fully nine points, so it sure doesn't look like a world-beating issue.

We'll be covering the election results tomorrow evening. James L. at Swing State Project reports that yesterday the DCCC put an additional $267,000 into the race, bringing their total expenditures in the race to just under $1.2 million.

Their commitment to this race indicates that they're perfectly prepared to go toe-to-toe not only with the NRCC, but with their shadowy surrogates like Freedom's Watch and the Club for Growth. If we win, it will not only be a blow to the NRCC, but to the credibility of these groups as well. Freedom's Watch will have a hell of a time trying to swing the presidential election if they can't swing this one.

Let's hope that Sunday finds a punch-drunk Freedom's Watch licking their wounds and ruminating on how they can find a way to escape their irrelevance.

Race tracker wiki: LA-06

Going into the special election on Saturday (yes, this Saturday), Democratic candidate Don Cazayoux enjoys a nine-point lead over Republican Woody Jenkins, according to the most recent independent poll.

SurveyUSA. 4/24-4/28. Likely voters. MoE 4.5%.

Just a few days before the special election, these are remarkable numbers for Cazayoux in a strongly Republican (R+6.5) district, one which the Republican Party has dominated since the 1970s.

Although the district is Republican turf, their brand name is hurting right now and their candidate is exceptionally bad. Jenkins is one of the most controversial politicians in Louisiana, and currently enjoys a 36/49 favorable/unfavorable rating in the district. Cazayoux's, by comparison, is a robust 43/28.

Aware of the potential embarrassment they'd face at losing this district, however, the Republicans have been throwing everything up to and including the kitchen sink into this district lately:

Despite an initial hesitancy over whether to even play in the race because of the baggage Jenkins brought to his campaign (in his March primary race, one of Jenkins’ challengers accused him of buying a mailing list from former Ku Klux Klan leader and political candidate David Duke during Jenkins’ unsuccessful 1996 Senate campaign), the NRCC has committed significant resources to the contest. According to Federal Election Commission filings, the committee has dropped more than $325,000 in independent expenditures on the race in just the past two weeks.

Meanwhile the independent political group Freedom’s Watch has spent about half a million dollars on TV ads in the 6th district. More than one of the ads produced by Freedom’s Watch has brought complaints from Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which has asked the FEC to open investigations into two of those ads. The DCCC is also asking the Internal Revenue Service to strip Freedom’s Watch of its tax-exempt status. On Wednesday, one of the group’s ads was pulled from the air by a CBS affiliate in Baton Rouge

Other anti-Cazayoux independent expenditures have come from the anti-tax group the Club for Growth — which has spent more than $110,000 on the contest — and Lane Grigsby, a wealthy construction company owner, who has a history of getting involved in Bayou State campaigns. Grigsby had dropped more than $100,000 in independent expenditures on the race since April 17.

The DCCC meanwhile has spent more than $600,000 on ads and other independent expenditures in just the last two weeks. Cazayoux received additional support this week when the Service Employees International Union decided to buy air time in the race.

Hm, the NRCC, Freedom's Watch, and the Club for Growth? That's quite a Murderer's Row of lunacy. And still, Cazayoux enjoys a nine-point lead.

It's still a red district, and in a low-turnout special election anything can happen, but these are excellent numbers with just two days until the election.

Race tracker wiki: LA-06

On May 3, voters in Louisiana’s 6th Congressional District can help America awaken from eight nightmarish years of Republican lunacy posing as leadership.  Here in the parishes along the Mississippi River near Baton Rouge, Democrat Don Cazayoux is in a special election against ultra-rightwing Republican Woody Jenkins, a quintessential George W. Bush clone, for a seat that has been held by Republican Richard Baker for 21 years (1987-2008).  The Democrat who is sworn in as our next President will need a strong majority in Congress:  he or she will not need people like Woody Jenkins sitting on the other side of the aisle.

Cross-posted on TPM

Cross posted at Daily Kingfish and MyDD.

The Cazayoux campaign released this web-only video about the race:

Don's candidacy has sparked a fire amongst the unions here in LA-06.  While they've worked with political candidates before, I've never seen them this excited about a candidate.  If you like the idea of adding to the Democratic majority in the House with someone who will be there with us on the economic issues we all care about, then donate.
 

I also had the opportunity to interview Don.  The interview is below the jump!

Swing State Project reports:

First up, LA-06:  $2K on field organizing, $22K on direct mail, and $104K on a media buy opposing GOP loser Woody Jenkins.  This brings the DCCC's total bill in the district to $279,547.  In total, the NRCC has spent $110,194 on defending this seat (not counting the money spent by Freedom's Watch here).

So in addition to the Democratic candidate himself, Don Cazayoux, having a healthy cash advantage over Republican counterpart Woody Jenkins, the DCCC is outspending the NRCC so far by a 2.5 to 1 ratio. That, in a solidly Republican district which hasn't seen a competitive race in 10 years (when Marjorie McKeithen nearly knocked off Richard Baker in 1998)...until now, of course.  

This ought to help counter the money that Freedom's Watch is tossing into the district, but the DCCC has also filed an FEC complaint against the Fleischerites at Freedom's Watch, for allegedly working in concord with the NRCC:

Federal election laws prohibit the independent group from coordinating its efforts with the NRCC, the campaign arm of House Republicans, or any political candidate.

The Democratic officials said the advertising script carried an electronic identifier that shows it originated in the Republican committee.

"Freedom's Watch is coming to the NRCC's rescue. The problem is that they're doing it illegally," said DCCC Executive Director Brian Wolff, adding that the group's "own document clearly shows that the script of their ad came from the NRCC."

For the nonprofit Freedom's Watch to use an NRCC script for their ad would be illegal, of course.

Frankly, though, I don't know what the big surprise is. Republicans have been using the same template ("LIBERAL! TAX AND SPEND! LIBERAL! SAN FRANCISCO! TAXACHUSETTS! LIBERAL LIBERAL COMMIE LIBERAL!") for their attack ads for decades. Is it so shocking that they're (literally) using the same script now?

Especially since they've got the NRCC's old stale crew running the show:

Freedom's Watch is now run by Carl Forti, who spent most of this decade overseeing hundreds of millions of dollars in TV campaigns for the NRCC, and Ed Patru, a former NRCC communications aide.

Shocking.

Freedom's Watch isn't getting involved in the race in Mississippi's First District-I guess Republican nominee Greg Davis just wasn't lunatic enough for their liking-so the DCCC and the NRCC get to fight head-to-head. And even in this R+10 district, the good guys are one-upping the bad guys. Again from the venerable SSP:

Next, the DCCC made a big splash in the MS-01 special election, spending $126,576 on producing and airing an ad attacking GOP candidate Greg Davis.  Earlier today, the NRCC posted a $62,000 expenditure against Democrat Travis Childers in this R+10 district.  The GOP wouldn't be wasting precious cash here if they didn't think there was a chance that Davis could lose this seat.

There is a chance that Davis will lose here, and Childers will win. I wouldn't say it's probable, but it's certainly possible.

Things are looking very rosy for House Democrats right now. We have credible candidates stepping up to run in Republican strongholds around the country. We have the resources not only to put them in a position to win, but to help bankrupt our Republican counterparts while so doing.

These districts shouldn't be especially competitive; the fact that they are indicates that the Republican Party really is backed up on its heels right now.

And we are fortunate enough to be able to spend twice what they do, even in their last-ditch efforts to protect some of the reddest of their turf.

Race tracker wiki: LA-06 MS-01

The latest news from the Don Cazayoux campaign: Democrat Cazayoux leads Republican Woody Jenkins in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Richard Baker in Louisiana's 6th District. From Roll Call (subscription only):

With almost three weeks to go before his special election in the 6th district, state Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) led former state Rep. Woody Jenkins (R) 49 percent to 42 percent, according to an internal poll released by Cazayoux’s campaign on Monday.

The poll of 500 likely special election voters was conducted by Anzalone Liszt Research April 8-10 and comes one week after Cazayoux released a March survey that showed him beating Jenkins 49 percent to 44 percent.

The GOP's own internal polling shows Cazayoux ahead as well, a rather remarkable situation for a R+6.5 district.

The Cook Political Report has moved their ranking of this race to "Leans Democratic". I think that is slightly optimistic-I'd call it a tossup at best-but it underscores the strength of Cazayoux's candidacy and his legitimate chance to win this seat and hold it.

If Cazayoux does manage to take the seat, he's in excellent position to hold it for the future. No incumbent Louisiana Representative from either party has been defeated by a member of the opposing party since 1890; every Louisiana seat which has changed hands in that time has been due either to retirement, or a successful primary challenge. That's bound to change sooner or later, especially as Louisiana is no longer a one-party state (as it was for most of the 20th century), but it's quite noteworthy nonetheless.

Naturally, the Republicans don't want to surrender a Republican seat (especially given the power of incumbency in Louisiana) without a fight. But with the NRCC barely treading water financially, and Jenkins' own fundraising dwarfed by Cazayoux's, they've been forced to call in the hit squad: Ari Fleischer's own Freedom's Watch.

Freedom’s Watch, a conservative advocacy group founded by former Bush administration officials last year, has bought advertising time on Baton Rouge television stations today – signaling a willingness for the upstart organization to help Congressional Republicans hang onto some of their more vulnerable seats.

The ad, scheduled to begin airing tomorrow, attacks state Rep. Don Cazayoux, the Democratic nominee running for former Rep. Richard Baker’s (R-La.) seat. Cazayoux is facing former GOP state Rep. Woody Jenkins in the May 3 special election.

The New York Times has some background on this happy gang of would-be Republicans saviors:

The conservative group Freedom’s Watch, headlined by two former senior White House officials, had been expected to be a deep-pocketed juggernaut in this year’s presidential election, heralded by supporters on the right as an aggressive counterweight to MoveOn.org, George Soros and the like.

But after a splashy debut last summer, in which it spent $15 million in a nationwide advertising blitz supporting President Bush’s troop escalation in Iraq, the group has been mostly quiet, beset by internal problems that have paralyzed it and raised questions about what kind of role, if any, it will actually play this fall.

Freedom's Watch does have some money to play with, so they could be something of a factor in this race. As the Times reports, they have had serious problems figuring out any plan of action thus far, so they've been pretty quiet.

It figures, though, that if they can unite around one candidate, Jenkins is that guy. He's the perfect Republican for the new era, equal parts Club for Growth and Focus on the Family. And needless to say, he has absolutely no intention of making government work for anyone:

In a Febuary 1995 speech delivered to the conservative group The Council for National Policy at Rancho Mirage, California, Jenkins advocated the abolition of the Departments of Commerce, Housing and Urban Development, Energy and Education as well as the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, the National Endowment for the Arts and the Legal Services Corporation.

"We want to do away with the programs, the bureaucrats and the cost of these agencies," Jenkins said.

A cursory review of the programs provided by the aforementioned departments provides a view of what Louisiana would have lacked in hurricane relief had Jenkins and his cohorts had their way before the first time we deemed him unfit to serve in national public office.

For example, the Department of Housing and Urban Development has provided tireless effort administering more than $11 billion in Community Development Block Grants. Their government Web site claims they are "helping thousands rebuild their homes and enabling communities to restore damaged public housing, promote affordable rental housing, and restore critical infrastructure."

You know, if we had just abolished HUD all those years ago, Katrina recovery would be so much easier now, right?

This is the Right's Chosen One, the one guy that Freedom's Watch can unite behind.

Race tracker wiki: LA-06

Fixed mistakes regarding Freedoms Watch, which is a 501(c)(4).

Cross-posted over at Daily Kingfish and MyDD.

Yesterday, the Cazayoux campaign released the results of a poll it commissioned AnzaloneLiszt Research to do on the LA-06 special general election.  Here are the results:

Also, Cazayoux’s favorable/unfavorable ratings are 55%/13%, which improved since the March primary, with the favorables increasing by 15%, compared to Woody’s 56%/34%, which has remained static over the last month.

Further, the Republican generic ballot advantage in this district is gone ... with voters saying that 43% of them will vote for the Democrat, and 41% of them will vote for the Republican.  That means Woody will have to win on his own merits.  

At least, that's what the Wall Street Journal is saying. Apparently, the GOP is unhappy with nominee Woody Jenkins, despite his solid right-wing credentials (with endorsements from the Club for Growth and Family Research Council), and they're debating how strongly to back their special-election nominee in an R+6.5 district.

Still, there is little enthusiasm for Mr. Jenkins among congressional Republicans, who view him as a second-tier candidate in what should be an easy victory for the party. The National Republican Congressional Committee, House Republicans' campaign arm, is weighing what resources to invest in the race.

Their Democratic counterpart, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, has a more than 7-to-1 cash advantage, according to the most recent FEC reports. The DCCC had $38 million on hand as of mid-March, while the NRCC had $5.1 million. Similarly, Mr. Cazayoux has so far raised more than double the amount of his opponent. The DCCC has embraced his candidacy and will likely invest in the race if it unfolds as competitively.

A Republican aide said the NRCC will meet with Mr. Jenkins's campaign this week to discuss strategy and to outline financial benchmarks that the campaign will have to meet to receive the campaign committee's support. They are currently polling in the district as well. "We are aware of the challenges we face," said a House Republican aide, noting that a Jenkins victory "is doable, but it's difficult."

Wait...their candidate has to meet certain "financial benchmarks", for them to even consider swooping in and saving him from defeat in a strongly Republican district which hasn't elected a Democrat since the 1970s? It's surprising enough that this race is so competitive in the first place; are they serious about abandoning Jenkins if he doesn't kick his fundraising up a notch?

I suppose that's understandable in a way; the NRCC hasn't been reaching its own "financial benchmarks", so it is hardly in a position to compensate for Jenkins' lousy fundraising.

Still, I can't see how hoarding what little monies they have left would be worth the PR hit they would take for the future if they lost here. Hell, losing a district like this would seriously damage their fundraising ability going forward. Nobody likes backing a sure loser, and a loss here would indicate to one and all just how bad an investment it is to donate to the NRCC.

James at Swing State Project has an interesting take on this:

Now, I find it pretty hard to believe that the NRCC would give up on an R+6.5 Southern open seat so easily, even with Jenkins' shady ties to former KKK leader David Duke figuring prominently in just about every post-runoff news article on this race.    But if the GOP wants to game the expectations that winning this district -- one that hasn't elected a Democrat to Congress since the early 1970s -- is an uphill fight for them, well, that's their choice to make.

Like James, I can't really believe that the NRCC is seriously considering abandoning this district altogether. But the mere fact that they're trying to lower expectations here is instructive. Their polling hasn't been good, and Cazayoux's fundraising has far outstripped Jenkins'.

That this race is competitive at all speaks to a number of factors; Cazayoux has run a good race, Jenkins has proven a controversial candidate (ties to David Duke will do that to you sometimes), the general political environment is favorable for Democrats, and it's possible that an influx of Katrina refugees to the Baton Rouge area has made the district slightly more Democratic.

While the Republicans say that winning the race with Jenkins is "doable, but difficult", I still think it's tougher for us to win than it is for them, even in the current favorable environment. That said, it certainly seems like there's real cause for concern for them, and reason enough for us to be (very cautiously) optimistic.

Strangely enough, John Boehner had a good line about Republican woes here, again from the Journal article:

Republican House Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio said the election forecast for Republicans isn't as gloomy as some expect, although he acknowledged that Republicans are unlikely to close the cash gap with Democrats. "You can put all the lipstick on a pig you want, but we're not doing well" financially, he said Thursday.

Lipstick on a pig, indeed.

Race tracker wiki: LA-06

Our best chance in a generation to pick up a seat that represents Baton Rouge, Louisiana's capital.  Your intrepid diarist was on the ground during yesterday's primary for a special election. Read on - Don Cazayoux needs our support.

The Republicans are doomed and I will go ahead say now that we WILL win this red seat in the upcoming general special election. According to the Baton Rouge Advocate, Democrat Don Cazayoux will face nutcase Woody Jenkins in May.